Critical Minerals
ThemeOur current view
State (current)
A new supply-chain theme where the sovereign underwrites the capex. Washington announced $3B in US critical-minerals investment to cut Chinese dependence, delivered largely through state credit and direct capital (a $1.4B Defense Department loan to Sila, $1B+ EXIM financing for Ivanhoe's Arizona copper project, $400M for scandium, $150M for Niron rare-earths). State co-investment lowers the cost of capital and execution risk for domestic miners and processors, changing how an allocator underwrites the equities.
Timeline
- 2026-08-08: Trump touts $3B critical-minerals package; $1.4B DOD loan to Sila Nanotechnologies, $1B+ EXIM for Ivanhoe Santa Cruz copper + $25M Alabama graphite, $400M scandium (Australia), $150M Niron rare-earths, $180M+ workforce; first US rare-earth mine in 70+ years, first new aluminum smelter since 1980 (https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/trump-touts-3-billion-minerals-193931615.html)
Our calls (journaled)
- 2026-08-08: Sovereign funding is a cost-of-capital subsidy, not a demand signal; underwrite these on policy durability and project execution, not on the headline number. Sits in the Alpha sleeve as a policy-linked bet. Outcome: open
Hit-rate
- pending
Recent research on Critical Minerals
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