Coverage
What we track, and our record on itA coverage note is the running answer to one question: what do we think about this, and were we right. Notes marked live carry a dated timeline and a journaled call history, updated as the story develops.
The Hormuz disruption has stopped behaving like an event and started behaving like a standing cost.
The developed world is not in a single monetary regime, and the week of 17 August makes the split
The US consumer became the market's live variable on 14 August and it arrives this week with a rare
The theme has moved off the income statement entirely. On 14 August Broadcom fell about 6% on a day it
The financing layer of the AI buildout has become a separately priced risk, and it is largely invisible in
A new supply-chain theme where the sovereign underwrites the capex. Washington announced $3B in US
VOO is Vanguard's S&P 500 ETF — the default beta core. Own 500 of America's biggest companies in one low-cost wrapper.
EUR/USD is the world's most-traded currency pair — the euro against the US dollar. It sits at the crossroads of ECB and Fed policy, so it moves on rate differentials, growth surprises and risk sentiment. We track where the money is actually flowing across it, not where the noise says it should.
USD/JPY is the dollar against the Japanese yen — a barometer of global risk appetite and the widest carry trade in markets. It's acutely sensitive to US yields and Bank of Japan policy shifts. We read its flow session by session.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) measures the dollar against a basket of major currencies — the single most important macro dial in markets. A rising dollar tightens global conditions; a falling one loosens them. Every asset class reads off it.
Gold is the market's oldest store of value and its cleanest read on real yields, the dollar and fear. It rallies when confidence in paper money wanes and when real rates fall. We track the flow behind the metal, not the gold-bug narrative.
WTI crude is the US oil benchmark and a live feed of global growth, supply shocks and geopolitics. It leads inflation expectations and moves energy equities and the loonie with it. We watch where positioning and flow are actually pointing.
The S&P 500 is the benchmark for US large-cap equity and the world's default risk asset. It concentrates megacap tech, so its breadth — how many names actually participate — matters as much as its level. We track the flow under the index.
The Nasdaq 100 is the growth/tech engine of US markets — long duration, rate-sensitive, and led by a handful of megacaps. It's the first to run on liquidity and the first to wobble when it tightens. We read its flow, not the hype.
Bitcoin is the reserve asset of crypto and an increasingly macro instrument — trading off liquidity, the dollar and ETF flows. It's the cleanest read on risk appetite at the frontier. We track the on-chain and spot flow behind the price.
Ethereum is the base layer for most of crypto's activity — DeFi, stablecoins and staking all settle on it. It trades as high-beta to Bitcoin but with its own supply and staking dynamics. We follow the flow, not the roadmap noise.
The VIX measures expected 30-day volatility on the S&P 500 — Wall Street's fear gauge. Low VIX signals complacency and leverage building; spikes mark stress and forced selling. We use it to frame risk-on versus risk-off, never to trade blindly.
The US 10-year Treasury yield is the risk-free rate the whole world prices off — the discount rate for equities, the anchor for mortgages, and a live read on growth and inflation expectations. When it moves fast, everything re-rates.
Broadcom is currently the clearest case study in the market's shift from asking whether AI demand is real to
Coverage is analytics and education, not individualized investment advice. Journaled calls include their outcomes, wins and misses. No buy or sell recommendation at any price. DYOR.